Busy

So, I haven't posted in a while. Why? Well, I guess I have been to busy trying to find hours to sleep! Yes, the transition to the morning show has been rough at times, but I believe I am finally starting to get used to the hours.

As far as the winter is concerned, which begins today, looks to be colder than normal along with above normal snowfall. The latter is obvious since we have already received 10.5" of snow.

I truly think January and February will be extremely cold. I mean 2 degrees below normal for each month.

Snow Total: 20.5"
Jan Average: 34.4
Feb Average: 40.0

Enoy Winter!

Fall is here.. What about Winter?

On October 15th I will be releasing my 2006/2007 Winter forecast. The forecast will be detailed and based on meteorological facts and not off of fluff. It will be a challenging forecast and I look forward to challenging its accuracy. I will also post the NWS, EUROPEAN, and other meteorological agencies forecasts, so that there may be a side by side comparison.

The Switch

Well, I am about to spend my last weekend as Weekend Meteorologist on Channel 8. I am about to make the switch and move over to the morning show. My whole life will now change due to the fact that I will possibly have some sort of life. I will have weekends off, but I will be waking up REALLY EARLY. I am looking forward to the future of my career. I think I will do well on the morning, because it is where I feel most comfortable.

Enough about my career, but I do think the WINTER is going to be COLD AND SNOWY. MARK MY WORDS. You heard it hear first...this winter is going to be one of the worst! Just one little hint...take a look at the forecast temperatures for Canada over the next week and a half. The cold is building early and it is already wanting to come down! Stay tuned...........

Its Getting Hot in Here...

The temperature finally broke 100 degrees in Tulsa. For some reason, it seems like a bigger story this year than in previous. But, I think its just the lack of worthy news that is going on in our own neck of the woods. God knows there is plenty of news going on around in the world today.

Anyways, after forecasting for 5 years now, I have realized that one can come to erroneous forecasting when not taking enough time to make a sound forecast. Sometimes, its easy for some people to just glance at the models and come to a quick conclusion. One must realize that it is absolutely necessary to consider all options that one has when making a forecast. For instance, the ECMWF may be excellent in depicting pattern shifts, but the GFS may not have a clue to the changes. This is why I think one should understand the importance of weighing all the models and not just look at one and go with its solution. This can and will prove to be a costly mistake. Just a random thought after watching some people stumble when making forecasts.

After all this heat I am looking forward to WINTER! So, what does winter hold for Oklahoma??? Good question, I will look into some data and let you know what the heck is going on with our current atmospheric state and its outlook.

Back to the Drought?

Well, Well, Well. Here we go again. Could the drought go from its current state "Moderate" back to the "Severe" drought we were dealing with a couple of months ago? Sadly, it looks as if thing will take a turn back to dry pattern for the next 15-25 days. The only hope is for MCS development in the month of June, but it looks as if summer is here and won't be going away anytime soon. However, could there be another rainy August...stay tuned for the details.

Significant Risk, High Risk, Deadly Situation...

Now days you tend to hear the worst case scenario for every single severe weather event. I realize that the job of the government and media is to protect the public. But, one has to wonder if the government is doing us a disfavor? The public is growing ever so accustomed to the hype, and sadly one day the hype is going to kill.

Think about how many warnings the general public has to remember:

Terror Warnings
Tornado Warnings
T-Storm Warnings
Flash Flood Warnings
Flood Warnings
Significant Weather Alerts (A warning before the warning)
Tornado Watch (Be on the look out for warnings)
Fire Weather Alerts
Fire Weather Watches
Red Flag Warnings
Burn Bans

The public will eventually have to much of this hype and not listen to the warnings. Sadly, that will be the day when a tornado comes roaring through their neighborhood.

Severe Outbreak???

All signs point to a severe outbreak tomorrow afternoon. The only question I have is will the morning thunderstorms hamper afternoon storms. Probably not. Why? Well, the upper level dynamics are very impressive and the storm system being so strong this should overcome any problems with lack of sunshine.