To Far South...To Far North
The ever changing computer models can never get a firm grasp on what is going to happen 3-5 days in the future. The 00z GFS paints a snowy picture for much of the South Central Plains. However, the 12z GFS paints a dry, but VERY COLD scenario for the region. On the other hand, the 12z NAM indicates a lot of moisture set to return north to Oklahoma on Friday with very cold conditions. Could this be a sign of a possible ICE storm brewing for Oklahoma. Its hard to tell, but it seems that all profiles will be cold enough for snow formation to occur. I want to draw attention to the possibility of a lot of warm air advection occurring this weekend. This is something you will probably not read about on your local discussions. But, as I have said over and over the SOI went negative about a week ago. This means that the southern branch will become active. But, where will it phase together with the Polar jet? Will it be to far south for Oklahoma to receive snow, or will it be right over Oklahoma and give us our 4"-6" snowfall. Only time will tell, but I will continue to post my ideas...
posted by weatherguy8 @ Tuesday, December 13, 2005
4 comments
4 Comments:
What level of temps are you looking at (forecast-wise) when you are trying to determine whether an event will be ice or snow?
I have always heard 850 temps are key. You mention warm air advection - if you have time, would you post about what temp ranges you look at for ice?
I've never been interested in learning how to forecast winter weather until this year... weird.
So really, what's up with the glasses?
Nice - from NWS Tulsa:
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
Props to Mark Plate for his discussion this afternoon:
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES SETTING
UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY SO IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN THINGS UP. HOWEVER...EXPECT SNOW TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP TO THE SURFACE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWS SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO MONDAY BUT JUST KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
COLD FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW ADEQUATE
MOISTURE TO PERHAPS CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOWS AT
THAT TIME. IT WILL BE STRUGGLE FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR. IF THE ECMWF DOES INDEED VERIFY...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE LATER.
Phil:
Thanks for the details. I'll take this info, apply it, and see what happens. I am such a severe weather forecasting freak that I have never taken the time to read, ask questions, even TRY to understand winter precip.
I'll have more questions for you guys!
Thanks again
Post a Comment
<< Home