Forget the Snow! Hello Spring...

Well, we all know now that this pattern that has transpired is a very warm one. It looks as if temperatures will be extremely warm for the next several weeks. What concerns me is the question: When does this pattern reverse? And, what extreme will we be going to after it does reverse?

I still think around the 10th of January the pattern will change significantly. However, its remain to be seen wether or not this pattern will transition to a cold pattern or one of threats of severe weather. The global weather pattern has not changed much and doesn't look to change for the next two weeks. Will be posting in a day or two after I study whats going on globally and especially with the ridge in the West.

Brrr.. Cold and Snowy New Year?

Well, as stated before the warm air will not last long. In fact, its not staying as long as some peoples in laws this holiday season. The pattern will reload and then the trough will come back to the central portion of the United States. This time it looks to LOCK. How long will it lock? Probably until the 10th of January. The SOI it trending positive. It has now done this over the past month. Its only time before precipitation catches up with this pattern. But, will the increase in precipitation bring in to much warm advection for wintry precipitation? Oh, wow...only GOD knows. Anyways, enjoy the brief break of warm temps, because starting mid to late week next week the temps will plummet once again.

The Good. The Bad. The Ugly

Well, I guess its safe to say that I was wrong with the snow predictions. However, the cold did come and was first posted here WAY before anybody saw it coming. I guess what I have learned from this event is that we are in a DROUGHT. If this was any other given year, I believe we would have seen some snow.

And we now move on to the next big weather maker. What will it be? Will it be the the vortmax that takes a dive out of Canada on Christmas Eve and bring us Colder weather for Christmas. Will it be in the 70 degree weather the last week of 2005? Has winter already come and gone?. Will Severe weather season 2006 start early and last long this year? Many of these questions will be answered here on this blog over the next few weeks and months.

Looking Ahead

Well, I am done posting about this upcoming weekend. I laid out the plans over a week ago, so if you have any questions please refer to the previous posts on what will happen this weekend. (I may throw in an update or two.)

After this weekend things begin to look interesting to some people. Some will bite on the idea that much warmer weather will be heading towards our area and that winter is DONE. Not the case, but, it will get a little warmer next Wed-Fri. However, the ridge in the west continues with off and on amplification through the next 15-20 days. This means that continued ups and downs will continue. Just like this last week where we saw record cold followed by a warmup, we will likely see cold this weekend with a warmup mid next week. The warmup next week will be followed by another cold streak starting around Christmas and lasting till about the New Year.

I want you to take a look that 18z 500mb animation. You can clearly see the ridge in the west trying to amplify and a trough setting up in the central portion of the United States. What's interesting is that Arctic Oscillation is still negative and will continue to be negative.

And The Beat Goes On...

The beat of forecast changing continues. However, you won't see that here. As forecasters scramble to figure out how to go from snowstorm to no snowstorm back to snowstorm this blog continues with the same forecast that was issued about a week ago. The details are becoming a little more clear, but I will have to tell you that the computer models are LOST. They have no clue what this weekend looks like nor do they have a clue as to what next week looks like. Could we have a White Christmas? Possibly, but a few things have to come together. I will post more this weekend with some links to the AO, NAO, and PNA ensembles.

The map above tells you where the snow/rain line will setup. However, I have a feeling the snow line will setup further south. More later...

To Be or NOT To Be

Well...The European models seem to be very stable on the upcoming pattern, however, the North American Models can not handle the amplification of the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. This is why you continue to see constant flops of forecasts on your local forecast outlets. I will tell you what I think will happen and we shall see if this comes true. First, we know Arctic air is coming! Highs wil be in the upper 20s on Monday and Tuesday. There will be a chance for some light snow on Saturday. Better chances for snow will come on Sunday night through early Tuesday. Yes, we will see accumulating snows here in Eastern Oklahoma by next Wednesday.

I have a word to the wise...Don't ride the rollercoaster of the model. Keep an eye on the pattern and flow. This will help you out in the long run. That way your not predicting 60s for this weekend. :)

The ICE and SNOW MAN COMETH?

Well, Well, Well.. The 18z GFS finally..FINALLY catches up with the ECMWF. Could this be a starting point for the North American models to start following? The 18z GFS shows a record breaking snowstorm and possibly mind numbing Arctic Air heading towards OKLAHOMA for Sunday/Monday. The picture that is shown on this update is 60HR TOTAL ACCUMULATED PRECIP. Remind you, this is in liquid form. However, all profiles look cold enough for Snow/ICE formation.

The idea is the Pacific Ridge really gets pumped up do the intense storms slamming the lower Gulf of Alaska. As a result a huge piece of energy slides down the eastern side of the Ridge and begins to dig to the south and west. As a result, this creates great surface development plus warm air advection. Normally, for Oklahoma to receive a perfect snow event three things have to be in order. 1.) Cold Air already in place. Check 2.)Storm system digging with warm air advection. Check 3.)Low pressure tracking in a favorable position for perfect heavy snow setup. Not Clear. What is clear in all of this is that something is going to happen and that extreme cold is heading our way. Get out the Arctic Jacket because its coming. What is worrisome is the possibility of to much warm advection causing a major ice storm somewhere in the Southern Plains.

The weather will be extreme for the next two weeks, however, there are signs of a more tranquil pattern heading our way for January. Stay tuned.

To Far South...To Far North

The ever changing computer models can never get a firm grasp on what is going to happen 3-5 days in the future. The 00z GFS paints a snowy picture for much of the South Central Plains. However, the 12z GFS paints a dry, but VERY COLD scenario for the region. On the other hand, the 12z NAM indicates a lot of moisture set to return north to Oklahoma on Friday with very cold conditions. Could this be a sign of a possible ICE storm brewing for Oklahoma. Its hard to tell, but it seems that all profiles will be cold enough for snow formation to occur. I want to draw attention to the possibility of a lot of warm air advection occurring this weekend. This is something you will probably not read about on your local discussions. But, as I have said over and over the SOI went negative about a week ago. This means that the southern branch will become active. But, where will it phase together with the Polar jet? Will it be to far south for Oklahoma to receive snow, or will it be right over Oklahoma and give us our 4"-6" snowfall. Only time will tell, but I will continue to post my ideas...

Can We Really Predict A Winter Storm (Long Range)

It is now late Monday evening. Models have been showing signs of a winter storm to affect the Southern Plains for about 3 days now. Most Ensembles have been pointing towards a trend of COLD weather, but now they are heading towards a winter storm. The latest graphic shows you total accumulation of snowfall after this upcoming possible storm this weekend. I am putting all this in writing, because if it verifies then I will have proof to my forecast. However, if it fails...Then I must go back to the drawing board.

NWS finally follows my lead...

Don't you think the National Weather Service could come up with some better graphics. Oh well, they are not in it for looks.

The change from Cold to Extreme Cold begins on Friday. It looks like the Southern Jet finally comes back to play. I alluded to this several days ago as I mentied the SOI value going to the tank. The southern jet should meet up with the polor jet this weekend and then dive south.

This will allow a monstrous Arctic High to settle down in the central portion of the United States. This will lead up to Christmas. This will give us an usually high chance of having a white Christmas....keep checking.

Cold and Winter Precip chances increase by weeks end.

Well, it seems that the computer models are finally coming together on the possibility of another winter storm in the south central plains for the weekend of 12/16-12/18. It looks like there will be a chance for some snow and ice with this system. Maybe our first ice event here in the city of Tulsa in some years.

As you can see the previous posts all point to a colder and unsettled weather pattern that would head our way during this time frame.

Interesting Weather Developments

12zrun GFS18zrun GFS

It seems as if the models are lost somewhere in computer model space. They are trying so hard to find their way home. Here is an example of the complete confusion the GFS is having right now. These are both forecast for a same time period, however, these graphics had a six hour initiation differential.

The GFS is having a very difficult time deciding what to do with the Pacific ridge and the Central US trough. It can't figure wether to amplify both or not. My feeling is that the amplification is way underdone by the GFS. The European/UKMET seems to have a much better handle on this situation. All this would lead to a Colder pattern.

CPC JUMPS ON BOARD

This image does not say that it will be colder, however, it merely states that there is a 37% chance that the average mean temperature for the 6-10 day period will be below normal. ***To me this is an easy way of saying that it will be cooler..But if we are wrong then we only said their was a 37% chance of that happening.

Arctic Oscillation drops significantly.

AO goes down significantly. This may be a sign that MORE COLD weather is heading our way. Also, the SOI goes to the tank as well. This could be a sign of a more active weather pattern heading to the southern states... stay tuned.